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南方水灾堪比98洪水,仍需检讨抗洪旧路径

1.85王者 时任北大校长的蔡元培在天安门前发表《光明与黑暗的消长》演讲,说道:“现在世界大战争的结果,协约国占了胜利,定要把国际间一切不平等的黑暗主义都消灭了,用光明主义来代他。

对天灾与人祸的归因及比例划分,必定会存在争议。最重要的,不是敌视批评或无视行动,而是在成因的归纳中看到缺陷与漏洞,行政的归行政改进,社会的归社会自察。检讨抗灾的路径依赖,既不在天灾中竖立英雄,也不忘记在人祸中悲悯苍生。

  南方连续暴雨,长江干流水位逼近堤防极限,2016大水灾猛然杀到。点降雨量超大,水系泄洪阻滞,大城内涝频发,就像98水灾那样,又到了取舍的时候。上保武汉,下保沪宁,在逐步开放行洪区的策略下,一些小型城市与镇村付出淹没的代价。

  具体到救灾现场,军队开到了长江堤坝上,采取人海战术,构筑沙包防洪墙。地方政府则动员上大坝巡防、盯守。随着抢险救灾的进程以久违的手法全面铺开,社交媒体接管了2016水灾的舆论设置。对水灾的看法逐渐多了起来,再次响起天灾与人祸之辩。

  天灾派的主要观点是:今年水灾是超强的厄尔尼诺现象在长江干流的集中体现,是降雨和洪峰相辅相成的产物。在这样的自然挑战面前,所有的抗洪都是人定胜天的豪迈展现,都是可歌可泣的。掌握了大量官媒资源的天灾派,在舆论当中竭力灌输这一点。

  将2016水灾归咎为天灾的,主要使用了宣扬与否定两种手法实现舆论制造。宣扬就是树立抗灾的典型人物与典型事迹。于是,我们看到,苦累多少小时的干部在堤防上和衣而眠,满身污泥的战士啃着馒头就矿泉水,先于洪峰竖立“人在堤在”的标语。

  否定的手法运用更加广泛。大的方面,否定武汉大搞基建对地下管网的破坏,否定130亿投入的治水无效,否定填湖卖给开发商会引发内涝,总之是否定行政行为的破坏性后果及其与内涝灾害之间的因果联系。否定的同时,加强宣扬抗洪的英勇事迹。

  认为水灾与人祸直接相关的,则针锋相对地提出观点。他们认为,单以武汉、南京等严重内涝来说,单单归结为天灾这个不可抗力是站不住脚的,与行政效能正相关的下水管网低效才是关键。若在全流域的范围内审视,人祸派甚至认为要重新评价三峡作用。

  人祸派的不只是在逻辑推演上与天灾派抗衡,在洪灾正酣的时候,他们及时获得了“弹药”。原武汉堤防中心主任唐某在2005至2013年间,涉及受贿工程造价接近10亿元,其中就包括刚刚发生溃口的举水河举西堤加固工程,工程造价为3186万元。

  武汉水务局原巡视员刘东才也被贪腐案证实,深度卷入堤防加固工程的发包,期限从2001年到2012年。这些事实成为人祸派论证豆腐渣工程的依据,因为这些贪腐发生的时段正是98年水灾至今巩固地方的时段,而他们牵涉的工程在今年水灾中出现问题,人祸说实现了完美推论。

  天灾派与人祸派也在社交媒体上直接竞争水灾的舆论议题,从三峡功能之辩,到抗洪战士吃馒头有理,再到城市湿地消失与洪水逻辑,已然是争论正在进行中。加入其中的有武汉官员,有团中央官微,有公知大V,也有市场媒体,从而把水灾的成因与看法引到更深一层。

  有论者认为死盯三峡,是人祸派“格局不够大,拿国之重器作为发泄标的物”;也有官员直接发言,再说130亿治水需要为水灾负责,莫怪“武汉人民抄家伙”有论者则针锋相对,“官媒照例英雄曲,堤堰依然豆腐渣”。两下似乎是不可调和的。

  在外国防洪神器、抗洪部队的后勤保障、官员在抗洪一线是坐皮筏艇视察还是自行打伞,这些诸多水灾中的细节,也都受到了媒体更全面的报道。外国神器中国也有,地方对部队抗洪后勤供应充足,无需吃馒头充饥,国外抗洪也有人力顶上等等。

  天灾或人祸,体现在对水灾成因的归纳南辕北辙,也更是因为98年那场滔天洪灾成为历史画卷,其悲情镌刻在全民记忆中,其惨烈教训成为今日水灾的强烈参照。何妨一问:二十年前的大水灾,为何二十年后在堤防、抗洪等基础设施上依然没能影响洪水进程?

  换言之,强调洪灾成因的人祸成分,是看见了98水灾以来未见根本改观的那些套路依旧在重演,憎恶的是“进步”不足以依恃,而“进步”又被格外渲染,他们厌恶的是欺骗与虚无。而强调洪灾的不可抗自然成分,是不忿于国情下的抗洪辛劳未被体谅与照单全收。

  总之,在今年的大水灾中,对天灾与人祸的归因及比例划分,必定会存在争议。最重要的,不是敌视批评或无视行动,而是在成因的归纳中看到缺陷与漏洞,行政的归行政改进,社会的归社会自察。检讨抗灾的路径依赖,既不在天灾中竖立英雄,也不忘记在人祸中悲悯苍生。

  (搜狐评论独家原创,未经许可谢绝任何的形式的转载,申请转载请联系本公号)

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